Mortgage rates are the story dominating headlines. The average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.69% for the week ending August 6-7, 2026, and notably, this marks the first time in 44 weeks that current rates have surpassed year-ago levels. That uptick is already showing up in demand: overall mortgage applications fell 2.9% week-over-week in late July, signaling a broader contraction in market demand.
Despite the rate pressure, the bigger data points from July were surprising. Zillow estimated that completed home sales jumped 7% in July, the strongest year-over-year gain so far in 2026. But there’s a catch: much of that strength reflects offers made back in June, and analysts are turning cautious about what comes next. July’s newly pending listings, homes under contract but not yet closed, are the leading indicator for August closings, and Zillow’s economists believe July may represent the market’s peak for the year. Some economists now think the summer slowdown will boost inventory, giving buyers more choices heading into fall, even as overall momentum cools.
Mortgage rates ticking back above last year’s levels are cooling buyer enthusiasm just as summer inventory builds. Buyers who have been looking for the opportunity to buy their first home after years of a superheated market should not “cool” their enthusiasm. This is the best time in years to make that first purchase. Mortgage rates are still affordable. Sellers are playing “Let’s Make a Deal”. There is less competition in the market as informed buyers are sitting on the sidelines. Do not let this opportunity skip by!
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