Mortgage rates remain the big story, and they’re sending mixed signals as markets reopen after Labor Day. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the highest level on that series since June 2025, while daily rate trackers show something a bit more volatile: Zillow’s marketplace data has the 30-year fixed easing to 6.67%, down 4 basis points, with the 15-year fixed down to 6.04% and the 5/1 ARM falling to 6.64%. Other trackers put the 30-year closer to 6.74%, reflecting an Optimal Blue reading from before Friday’s jobs report. The takeaway is that rates are hovering in the high 6% range, near a one-year high, and bouncing around as traders digest new economic data.
Behind those moves, the 10-year Treasury yield is climbing toward 4.77-4.78%, pushed up by heavy government borrowing and global uncertainty, while oil above $93 a barrel is adding inflation pressure. On the jobs front, August payrolls rose by 162,000, which was considerably stronger than the roughly 31,000 average monthly gain over the prior 12 months, a reading that’s keeping the Fed’s path uncertain. Markets are now waiting on PPI, existing home sales, and CPI data, plus the mid-September FOMC meeting, all of which could move rates further in either direction.
US house price growth has continued to lose momentum this year, weighed down by elevated borrowing costs, stretched affordability, weak transaction activity, and gradually improving inventory, though limited resale supply has cushioned values and prevented a broader correction. Existing home sales fell 3.6% from February to March and are down about 1% year-over-year, and builder sentiment remains weak, with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropping to 34 in April, its lowest level since September 2025 and well below the neutral 50 mark. So, the pattern for months now has been a market with high 6% rates keeping both buyers and sellers cautious, slow price growth, and everyone watching the Fed for a sign that things might loosen up. This week doesn’t change that story so much as add another data point to it.